Predicting the 2026 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction (and How to Watch It Live!)

It feels good to type these next few words: The Pulitzer Prize announcement is nigh! On Monday, May 4th, at 3:00 p.m. EST, we’ll find out which book takes home one of the literary world’s most celebrated prizes. Live stream the announcement here!

To be honest, it’s nice to be able to celebrate something. The book that claims the title as the winner of the 2026 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction will get media attention, and it’ll be just plain wonderful to see some energy spent on books and stories.

Winning the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction is, of course, a big deal. The new winner will join the ranks of such classic books as Harper Lee’s To Kill a Mockingbird, Eudora Welty’s The Optimist’s Daughter, Toni Morrison’s Beloved, Larry McMurtry’s Lonesome Dove, Annie Proulx’s The Shipping News, Michael Chabon’s The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier & Clay, Colson Whitehead’s The Underground Railroad, and, most recently, Percival Everett’s James. It’s quite the company, indeed.

My task of predicting what title might win is a tough one. Could we see a double winner, like in 2023, when Barbara Kingsolver’s Demon Copperhead and Hernan Diaz’s Trust claimed the Prize? Could we see another 2012, with no winner? Could something shock us all—maybe a magnificent small wonder like Paul Harding’s Tinkers?

As per my usual, I’ve tried my best to stay away from my own literary opinions in compiling this prediction list, which is why you won’t find several of my favorite fiction books of the year—Dan Leach’s Junah at the End of the World, Julia Elliott’s Hellions, Susan Gregg Gilmore’s The Curious Calling of Leonard Bush, Scott Gould’s Peace Like a River, Emma Ensley’s The Computer Room, or Robert Busby’s Bodock—included below. Instead, I rely on other awards, critical and reader buzz, and my own intuition in offering these Pulitzer hopefuls.

So, here we go. In order from dark horses to definite contenders, below are my predictions for the 2026 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction:

10: The Slip by Lucas Schaefer

The Slip was among the very first books I read during 2025, and it lingered with me throughout the year. It’s many things, but at its core, it’s a book about sports, sex, and race. It was one of the early winners in the literary award cycle, picking up the esteemed Kirkus Prize. It also showed up on multiple best-of lists. While The Slip is a debut, and debuts aren’t frequent winners for the Pulitzer, Schaefer’s novel is absolutely fantastic and would be a worthy winner.

9: The Correspondent by Virginia Evans

I know this one is another debut, but when I talk to folks about books from 2025, Virginia Evans’ epistolary gem is the one I hear about the most. Readers absolutely love this book. However, it’s not only readers who are celebrating it. Critics are on board, too. Venues such as NPR, The Washington Post, and others included it on best-of lists, and it was longlisted for several prizes, including the Center for Fiction First Novel Prize. 

8: The Wilderness by Angela Flournoy

Flournoy’s The Wilderness, which is the author’s follow-up to the hugely-acclaimed The Turner House, is another major win. The novel looks at friendship and closely examines modern life. It already received an endorsement from Barack Obama himself, and it was a finalist for the Kirkus Prize and the National Book Critics Circle Award. It’s one to watch!

7: A Guardian and a Thief by Megha Majumdar

Majumdar’s latest novel has done very well during the current award cycle, and such acclaim is definitely deserved. What a book this is, exploring issues of morality, climate, and love. A Guardian and a Thief took home the Andrew Carnegie Medal for Excellence in Fiction, and it was a finalist for the National Book Award. 

6: The Pelican Child by Joy Williams

Williams has been a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize in Fiction before with 2000’s The Quick and the Dead. Last year’s The Pelican Child, a timely story collection with wonderful reviews and accolades, including being longlisted for the National Book Award, brings Williams back as a strong—maybe a very strong—contender.

5: Marce Catlett: The Force of a Story by Wendell Berry

I know I mentioned how I try to keep my own personal feelings out of these predictions as much as I can, but this is the great Wendell Berry I’m writing about. During the summer of 2025, I spent time tending my garden, teaching a bit, and reading, again, all of Berry’s Port William series, which is set in the kind of place I don’t really want to leave. Marce Catlett features Berry writing about the things he writes about best of all. There is memory, love, family, and an exploration of our connection to the land. The book hasn’t garnered the literary trophies and buzz that often help in predicting these major literary awards, but Berry is deeply beloved, with a career that’s given us numerous masterpieces of rural America. Marce Catlett: The Force of a Story is an underdog, perhaps, but it’s a mighty one.

4: Buckeye by Patrick Ryan

Patrick Ryan’s Buckeye is a brilliant book that captured me from the first page to the last one. It’s brimming with big moments and even bigger characters. It covers a lot of territory, including sex, secrets, grief, and redemption, as it spans multiple generations, and I think it definitely earns the title of “Great American Novel.” Readers love it. Critics adore it. It’s shown up on many, many “best-of” lists from venues such as The New York Times Book Review, NPR, and People.

3: The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny by Kiran Desai

Desai’s previous novel, The Inheritance of Loss, was a major critical success—a major one—when it was released nearly 20 years ago. The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny, full of family and love and much more, is following in similarly successful footsteps. Among other accolades, the novel was shortlisted for the Man Booker Prize, was a finalist for the Kirkus Prize, and made the year-end lists of Lit Hub, The New Yorker, Library Journal, and others.

2: Flashlight by Susan Choi

Choi’s widely-acclaimed new novel, Flashlight, depicts, among other things, the complexities of memory. It’s shown up at so many places as one of the best books of 2025, and it’s received nomination upon nomination, including being featured on longlists for the National Book Award, the Women’s Prize for Fiction, and the Andrew Carnegie Medal. I expect it to show up come Pulitzer day.

1: The Antidote by Karen Russell

Karen Russell is a previous finalist for the Pulitzer, and I have to believe that this is her year to take it home. The Antidote is Russell at her absolute best. There is magic aplenty, and even more complexities of the human heart inside these pages. Set around the Dust Bowl, this wonderful novel explores memory in such a complex and important way, showing readers that to remember is to better understand our own identity. The Antidote is timely, certainly, but there’s also something about it that feels timeless. Like I said, there’s magic here. It’s already been named as a finalist for the National Book Award and the National Book Critics Circle Award. The New York Times, NPR, and numerous others loved it. I think it’s the winner.